The authors document and describe these three forces: (1) divergent skill distributions among U.S. population groups; (2) a changing economy; and (3) demographic trends of a growing, more diverse population. They project the impact of these three variables, and their interactions, upon the nation 25 years into the future.
The first set of forces is evident in the findings of a number of large-scale national and international surveys conducted over the past decades. These findings show that large numbers of our nation’s adults do not have sufficient command of the literacy and numeracy skills needed to function effectively in an increasingly competitive work environment.
The second set of forces is driven by the fact that the U.S. economy has undergone significant changes in recent years. The labor markets of today are markedly different from those of earlier decades as a result of several developments, including industrial and corporate restructuring, declines in unionization, technological change, and globalization.
The third set of forces is powered by demographic trends. The U.S. population is projected to grow from nearly 300 million in 2005 to more than 360 million by the year 2030. Certain minority groups, especially Hispanics, represent a considerable and growing proportion of the population. Immigration has accounted for an increasingly large fraction of U.S. population growth over the past few decades and is projected to do so over the remainder of this decade — and at least into the near future. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, these immigration patterns, coupled with differences in birth rates, will result in substantial increases in the racial/ethnic diversity of the nation’s population over the next 20 to 25 years and beyond.
The authors warn that the confluence of these factors can create a powerful dynamic that continually feeds the storm — putting our nation increasingly at risk as the challenges of failed reform(s) compound over time. They offer hope, however, that if we act now and invest in policies that will help our nation grow together, we can meet our ideals as a nation offering real opportunity for all its citizens and continue to carry out our leading role in the world.